Thursday, May 06, 2010
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The Greek tragedy unfolds
A photograph taken near Greece's parliament building in Athens on Wednesday 5th May 2010.
Euro vs US Dollar - July 2009 to May 2010 (chart)
The Greek Crisis is big; the German crisis is bigger. Germany loses control of EuroSoviet casino financing. Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG (Dresdner) at terminal risk from Greek collateral damage. German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, says future of Europe is at stake. The Euro currency is a half-finished con-job.
The inexorable flames of market contagion have rushed through the firewall of the IMF/EU programme for Greece and now threaten other peripheral countries. Spreads on Portuguese ten-year bonds have soared to a post-EMU record of 290 basis points above Bunds; Spanish spreads rose to 131. The international markets view the EU-IMF package for Greece as a politically-shaped response which cannot work. It shuts off the twin cures of debt restructuring and devaluation, leaving the burden of adjustment on the Greek people. The informed Greek public is coming to the view that the Greece bailout plan is a rescue for foreign banks and funds - particularly German ones. There seems to be little chance of carrying Greece through five years of harsh austerity on this basis of this perception. Dominique Strauss-Khan, Managing Director of the IMF, said that Europe must urgently create some form of fiscal union to shore up the European Monetary Union. He described the Euro a half-finished job.
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